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		<title>Exponential Change; The World is not Flat</title>
		<link>http://www.robinmaiden.com/2008/01/exponential-change-the-world-is-not-linear/</link>
		<comments>http://www.robinmaiden.com/2008/01/exponential-change-the-world-is-not-linear/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jan 2008 16:05:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robin Maiden</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[exponential]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[viral]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I don&#8217;t know where I read it or heard it, but someone was talking about how we, as humans, think linearly. We look at past trends and forecast along a straight line. This isn&#8217;t in all cases, obviously, but in a lot of things, I think we do. But, change doesn&#8217;t happen that way. Populations, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.robinmaiden.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/exponentgraph1.jpg" title="ExponentGraph2"><img src="http://www.robinmaiden.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/exponentgraph1.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="84" width="121" /></a>I don&#8217;t know where I read it or heard it, but someone was talking about how we, as humans, think linearly.  We look at past trends and forecast along a straight line.  This isn&#8217;t in all cases, obviously, but in a lot of things, I think we do.  But, change doesn&#8217;t happen that way.  Populations, demand, growth, acceptance, &#8230; can all change exponentially or geometrically.   Think viral videos.</p>
<p>The take away from this&#8230; plan and think how things in your business can change geometrically.  If you <strong>only</strong> use linear forecasts, you will be surprised.  If you plan that your forecasts will &#8220;turn the corner&#8221; and go viral,  you will be prepared and not playing catch-up, slack jawed, with watery, wide eyes.</p>
<p>The hard part is &#8220;when.&#8221;  Exponential growth does follow a pretty linear path until it does &#8220;turn the corner.&#8221;</p>
<p>If anyone knows where I might have heard or read this, please put it in the comments.</p>
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